Whistler British Columbia Canada

The qualifying line for the Canadian 2010 Vancouver Olympic men’s figure skating event is now forming. In the World Cup and International level figure skating competitions running up to the 2010 Olympics, men’s figure skating will be a battle of American giants. World men’s Olympic figure skating has not seen a battle like Weir versus Lysacek in 2010 for some time. Barring critical injury, the medals will be fought for with vigor.

1. Brian Joubert – France

Joubert has been the darling for many skating critics for many years. But Joubert is part of the new blood that has pushed the quad jump into the forefront of qualifying Gold medal winning Olympic programs. Joubert landed 3 quad jumps in the 2006 Russian Grand Prix. And he’s vastly entertaining to watch.

Unlike the recently retired Russian skater though Joubert merits all the superlatives and is physically engaged throughout every routine. But unlike many elite skaters Joubert’s skills don’t suffer for jumping prowess. Joubert doesn’t need the 4/3/3/ but he can deliver it with the rest of a polished routine.

Joubert challenged Plushenko and Yagudin and may not last to 2010 without a smooth training to the qualifying. His “Matrix” routine cemented the smooth delivery of perfectly edged jumps. Expressiveness and technical prowess make Joubert a tough short or long program to beat. If Joubert lasts, he’ll have one hand on the gold from the start.

2. Daisuke Takahashi – Japan

Takahashi is praised by fans and possibly underscored in the shadow of more Western audiences and judges. Japanese and once ranked fourth in the world, he keeps missing key routines when the podium is within reach. Sadly he’s a strong skater with character and finesse, but the crowded field edges him off the dais.

An embarrassment of riches in men’s figure skating puts Takahashi awkwardly somewhere around fifth or sixth. Eighth in the Turin Olympics, Takahashi thrills crowds but gets elbowed aside by the flashier Joubert and Lampiel (and now Verner). But if the toppers at Vancouver in 2010 get injured or flop in their short skate, Takahashi might nab bronze or silver.

At this point in skating history, it’s hard to believe a senior elite international men’s skater could deliver a hip-hop version of “Swan Lake” complete with a clean quad landing and not sweep the podium. But the talent from the killer troika from Europe of Verner, Joubert, and Lambiel leaves no medals for Takahashi in 2010 unless he wins through due to a case of catastrophe or freak Olympian brilliance.

3. Stephane Lambiel – Switzerland

This Swiss men’s skater is anything but neutral on the ice. His sophisticated performances stop just short of operatic. Lambiel is remarkably fluid and elicits good audience participation. Lambiel’s tour de force long program in Tokyo in 2007 should be bookmarked for the Ice Flamenco hall of Fame.

Lambiel’s spiral sequence from the flamenco routine challenged the aerial camera in its scope, accentuation, and rink span. Skaters are few and far between who can school and audience amidst gold medal competition and leave them wanting more. When audiences applaud after Lambiel’s routines you can see them jump out of their seats when he’s done.

The school of spinning and geometrics belong to Lambiel, and the match of technical prowess and artistic style of high caliber has been compared to Michelle Kwan’s. Will silvering in Turin be enough? Labiel lost the European 2008 meet due to falls in the short program. If Lambiel presents himself in Vancouver in 2010, Europe could take every medal spot.

4. Evan Lysacek – USA

Lysacek has been ducking and weaving between first and second with Weir throughout the United States qualifying and World competitions for years. Injuries and nerves, outspokenness, and unpopular scoring have made fans choose sides between the tall, dark, and thin Lysacek and the feathery but creatively urbane Weir.

Lysacek has worn the mantle of the American favorite in many competitions but certainly does not skate as well as Joubert or Lambiel. Can Lysacek bring his American game to Olympic levels? Artistically and creatively Lysacek may be American national champion but won’t medal in Vancouver unless the top medalists hit the ice.

5. Johnny Weir – USA

Weir is no Johnny come Lately to the sport of skating, his programs at the Olympic level date back to 2004. But the rivalry between himself and Lysacek overpowers both of their individual skating traits. Weir has a lyric skating style not seen since Phillipe Candelorio or Toller Cranston.

Weir is artistically in a position to challenge Lambiel and Joubert at the top of their creative potential. Weir needs to temper the fine creative flair with a few more additional spins and articulation notes. If Weir can arrange a routine that showcases the necessary fluid dance and technical marks he’ll rank in the top three on the Olympic podium in 2010.

6. Sergei Voronov – Russian

Voronov is an example of the lower rungs of the Russo-European championship ranks. A quad jumper with adequate skills, he’ll thrill the crowd in Vancouver to warm up the room for the inevitable men’s Joubert-Lambiel-Verner skate off. But a bravura performance in Vancouver by Voronov might thrill judges, especially if Joubert falls and Verner’s star fades.

Voronov needs better music. But as the ranking Russian skater in Vancouver 2010, he might rack up new code points to qualify for the long program inside the top 6. Voronov shouldered past Joubert in the 2008 European long program, and finished fourth overall. Voronov is young and Joubert has battled injuries, and if he starts higher next time around from the free skate he’ll be on the Olympian podium.

Sergei is a junior to senior skater still feeling his oats. His routines earn high points due to the new coded figure skating point system but audiences won’t jump up and cheer. But if he matures in time for the Vancouver figure skating games he might give the frontrunners a run for their money.

7. Tomas Verner – Czech Republic

Verner’s pantherish white-glove style powered up through the European championships in 2007 and his stacked quads stunned the 2008 Worlds. Lambiel’s career best routine was impossibly put into the shade by Verner’s faultless execution of a killer long program. Verner’s elfin perfection stunned the crowd, judges, and commentators silent.

Verner looks tall and boyish, but skats as though he were the love child of Brian Boitano and Ann Miller. The momentum and speed, delivered with checkmark edges and technical elements earns record points under the new system. Verner finished 18th in Turin, but he won’t see that number again even if he falls into a coma.

Verner can execute 2 quads and seven triples in a clean routine. If he has any potential left Vancouver will have to invent a new medal above gold. Verner won 2008 worlds by using the body with difficult turns and sophisticated spins. If the choreography isn’t overcooked by 2020, Verner could steal the golden prize.

8. Sergei Davydov

Sergei Davydov is hardly a new name in men’s Olympic skating. His expressive skating lends musicality with polished performance. Davydov’s unconventional choreography (to classical music) could be more finished for the elite ranks. His flickering spins and arrested jumps make for great spectator viewing. But he needs to deliver impressively to break the podium ceiling of Joubert, Lambiel, and Verner.

Skating to no less than “Jesus Christ Superstar”, Davydov took 4th at the 2007 Cup of China. Davydov’s dramatic programs and thematic flourishes are entertaining without being over the top. If the top players fumble their quads or muddle their blade edges in their 3/3/2’s (or even 4/3/3’s) Davydov could claim the gold.

9. Alexander Uspenski/Patrick Chan – Russia/Canada

Patrick Chan of Canada could get to Vancouver and wow the hometown crowd. The smooth phrasing and difficult edges of Chan’s extremely mature skating for his age present very well. Artistry and expression are solid Chan attributes. But if he doesn’t have a quad he simply won’t get there. Unfortunately many see Chan as a Lambiel clone. But Chan is young enough to make it to Vancouver and if not, beyond.

Alexander Uspenski of Russia has the long range international competition chops from years of Juniors, but illness could stall his training again. Uspenski has traded coaches and may not have found his groove yet, but he could hit his stride in 2010. If he turns in a strong qualifying short program, he could edge one of the bigger players from the qualifying round. Uspenski has the quad, and the Russian spot in the qualifying meets to get to Vancouver in 2010.

10. Shawn Sawyer – Canada

Sawyer’s performances are dynamic and fluid, filled with tight spins, original moves, and unorthodox musicality. Creative expression could register with world-class judges and show up more robotic skaters. Sawyer’s flexibility and confident connection to demonstrated skill recalls Brian Boitano.

Shawn Sawyer’s fluid uniqueness on the ice deserve recognition and he’ll be a fascinating exhibition skater anywhere he cares to exhibit. There is a hidden difficulty and serious artisanship in Sawyer’s skating that only lacks the highest technical strokes to assure him of Olympic gold.

Sawyer delivers a very clean 3/3/2, and should deliver a triple to get to the podium. Sawyer also might show up the trickier players with a faster paced routine. This skater’s physical relationship to the music outclasses Lysacek’s any day. Sawyer might polish the rough edges, speed up, and class his A game for the Vancouver competitive field and stun a hometown crowd in 2010.

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